Amid external and internal demand constraints, the packaging paper market has entered winter ahead of schedule. What will be the trend of paper prices in 2024?

Entering November, the industrial base paper market has become polarized. Cultural paper manufacturers continue to rise against the trend, while packaging paper manufacturers have taken advantage of the trend and consolidated downwards.

On November 1, 2023, packaging paper leader Nine Dragons Paper announced a price cut, marking the end of two months of base paper price increases.

Starting from November 1st, the price of Nine Dragons Tianjin and Hebei bases will be reduced by 30 yuan/ton, and that of corrugated paper will be reduced by 100 yuan/ton, while other prices will remain unchanged. All recycled and corrugated paper at Nine Dragons Shenyang base are discounted by 50 yuan for items of 100 grams and above, and Dilong Niu Card is discounted by 50 yuan.

On November 8, Nine Dragons Paper's Dongguan, Taicang, Quanzhou, Shenyang, Tianjin and other bases made price reduction adjustments for corrugated paper and kraft paperboard. Dongguan Nine Dragons Paper's floor tiles are reduced by 100 yuan/ton, Jiangzai's 100g and above weight are reduced by 50 yuan/ton; Taicang Nine Dragons Paper's Hailong, Dilong, Dilong T ox cards, recycled ox cards, and tile paper are reduced by 50 yuan Yuan/ton; Quanzhou Nine Dragons Paper's corrugated paper and recycled paper prices are reduced by 50 yuan/ton; Tianjin Nine Dragons Paper's corrugated paper prices are reduced by 50 yuan/ton, and weights of 115 grams and above from Di Zai and Jiang Zai are reduced by 30 yuan/ton. ; Shenyang Nine Dragons Paper's corrugated paper prices have been reduced by 50 yuan/ton, and the prices of kraft paper and recycled paper have been reduced by 30 yuan/ton.

Zhuochuang Information data shows that while corrugated paper was suppressed by supply in October, demand performance was weak, and the contradiction between market supply and demand intensified. In the second half of the year, prices turned from rising to falling. The supply of corrugated paper may continue to be under pressure in the market outlook, demand performance may be weak at first and then slightly improve, and prices may be mainly weak in November.

There is an inevitability and regularity in the price reduction of packaging paper. First of all, the hastily concluded Double 11 order amount has been cut by more than half compared with the peak period, highlighting the sluggish domestic demand. Secondly, from January to October, China's exports to the EU fell by 10.6%, and exports to the United States dropped by 15.4%.

On the other hand, pulp futures also began to decline in late October. Affected by weak demand, the future price trend is difficult to say optimistic. At the same time, affected by conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and Israel, international oil prices have continued to plummet, which is conducive to reducing energy costs.

Over the past three decades, China's papermaking and paper packaging industry has experienced historic prosperity thanks to economic globalization and industrial chain shifts. But this prosperity is undoubtedly based on an export-led market. Once there is a big fluctuation in exports, this market foundation will also face collapse.

Affected by the surge in exports and the fall in exports, the paper market has lost its former glory in 2022-2023. So, what will be the trend of paper prices in 2024? In Editor Bao's view, it mainly depends on exports, or in other words, on relations with developed countries such as Europe, the United States, and Japan.